According to an analysis by Drewry, the canceled trips for the upcoming four weeks will amount to 37 blank sailings out of a total of 696 scheduled departures. On average, it is expected that 95% of vessels will start their journeys as planned.
The consultancy indicated that between week 34 (August 19 to 25) and week 38 (September 16 to 22), the major routes—namely Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean—will see a 5% cancellation rate of total departures.
During this period, 70% of the blank sailings will occur in Transpacific eastbound traffic, 22% in Transatlantic westbound traffic, and 8% in the Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean route.
Additionally, for the next five weeks, THE Alliance has announced 10 cancellations, followed by OCEAN Alliance and 2M with 5 and 3 cancellations, respectively. During the same period, 17 blank sailings will be implemented on services that do not belong to any alliance.
The current expected decrease in blank sailings on major East-West routes (from 105 in weeks 29 to 33 to 37 in weeks 34 to 38) suggests a possible stabilization and eventual decrease in maritime shipping rates due to low demand and available supply,” reported Drewry.
“This trend is already reflected in the market, as demonstrated by the Drewry WCI composite index, which fell 2% weekly to $5,428 on August 14, representing a 7% decrease since the end of July. Rates on Transpacific and Asia-North Europe/Mediterranean routes have also dropped by 2%, while Transatlantic rates remained unchanged, reinforcing the expected impact on rates,” added.
Meanwhile, U.S. ports are preparing for possible disruptions due to a potential industrial action by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), as negotiations with USMX over wage increases, job security, and automation reach a critical point.
