Peru’s 2025 avocado campaign looks promising. After three years of climate-related challenges and volume declines, the season is marked by an anticipated production recovery.
The industry’s crucial high-supply months, June and August, are approaching, and it’s projected we’ll see an estimated 30% growth compared to 2024, and exports close to 655,000 metric tons.
José Antonio Castro, president of ProHass, spoke with Freshfruitportal.com about the industry’s current state, challenges, and this year’s campaign focus: strategic markets like the United States, Chile, and Asia.
How do you evaluate the performance of the Peruvian avocado industry so far this year?
So far, market volume absorption has been quite good. The real test is the months of June and July, when the bulk of Peru’s avocado supply arrives, and as we’ve mentioned, a significant 30% growth is expected.
Given the latest Mexican volume projections in the North American market, this presents an excellent opportunity for Peruvian avocados. We are confident that with good coordination and by respecting commercial programs, Peru can achieve a remarkable +75% growth in this market, gain market share, and most importantly, deliver the best possible consumer experience with high-quality avocados.
We have June, July, and August to achieve this goal and position ourselves as a strong alternative for American consumers.
What are the main challenges and opportunities facing the industry?
Informality, logistical and shipping cost overruns at the national level are the main challenges the industry faces. In addition, new tariffs are reducing our competitiveness. These barriers make the process of industry integration to access markets in an aligned and long-term vision somewhat slower.
What are the production projections for Peruvian avocado for the current campaign?
We project a 30% growth compared to 2024, a year in which volume was down 10% compared to 2023 and 2022. In total, we expect around 655,000 metric tons of Hass avocados to be exported.
Given the estimated 20% drop in Peruvian avocado exports compared to projections, what is the reason?
We must remember that Peru has 77,000 hectares of Hass avocados and 28 producers. Field-level estimates are not easy and are made months before the harvest. The behavior and growth of the fruit can vary from year to year due to multiple factors—climatic ones, for example—which can affect the expected size and weight, impacting estimates.
As harvesting progresses in different regions and the calibers are more accurately reported, projections can be adjusted to keep the industry updated with current figures.
Which regions of the country are leading production this season?
Definitely, the northern coast of Peru has the largest area planted with Hass avocados, and the field structures there also have yields above the national average.
How have climatic factors like El Niño or water scarcity affected production?
There are two factors contributing to this growth: new hectares entering production and the recovery of many fields, especially in the north of the country, that were affected by climatic factors over the past three seasons.
In 2022 and 2023, our exportable supply didn’t grow, and in 2024 it even decreased by 10% compared to the previous year. This 30% growth can be compared more closely to 2021 volumes. Another contributing factor is the new hectares coming into production.
What are the expectations regarding price behavior in major markets?
Global avocado consumption continues to grow year by year. However, this growth must be orderly to avoid saturating the markets week after week.
We need markets not only to consume more avocado but to do so especially when Peruvian avocados are available. Growth in consumption during the Southern Hemisphere summer is essential to support the growth of our exportable supply. Otherwise, we will face oversupplied markets, which will negatively affect producers’ returns.
A New Market in Southeast Asia, Chile, and the Competition
In May, ProHass announced that Peruvian Hass avocados will be allowed to enter Thailand. Between May 12 and 16, two representatives from the Plant Protection Research and Development Office of Thailand’s Department of Agriculture (DOA) visited Peru as part of the phytosanitary agreements between both countries. During their stay, the Thai representatives conducted a thorough audit of farms and packing plants to verify compliance with the necessary requirements to authorize exports of Hass avocados during the 2025 campaign.
What does the opening of the Thai market mean for the sector?
All markets are important. Global avocado consumption continues to grow every year. However, this growth must happen in an organized way to avoid saturating markets week after week.
What volume do you expect to export to Chile?
Chile is the third most important market for Peru in terms of volume, but it should be the most strategic market for Peruvian avocados. As an industry, we still need to fully recognize and develop this. We must improve our offer year after year in terms of quality, condition, and quantity to promote off-season consumption of Peruvian avocados in Chile. Chile has one of the highest per capita consumption rates in the world—measured annually.
Peru should align all its efforts so that during the months when Peruvian avocados reach this market, the per capita consumption is equal to or even greater than during Chile’s own peak production months. But this requires a shared vision, formality, quality, optimal conditions, organized supply, promotions—it’s a major challenge.
We should also remember that Chile’s own season is just starting, and between June and August, we will see how we can supply this strategic market for Peruvian avocados. All global markets are connected, and what we must aim for is to deliver to each market in a planned and orderly manner the volume it demands, and with the best possible quality.
How does Peruvian avocado position itself against main competitors like Mexico, Chile, or Colombia?
Peru, after Mexico, is the second-largest producer and exporter of Hass avocados in the world. This gives us a great responsibility as an industry. Colombia is improving and becoming a competitor for Peru.
What message would you give to producers and exporters given the current market situation?
Producers should focus on agronomic efficiency and the quality of their product. Even if we had zero tariffs in all markets or extremely low shipping rates, without productivity, we will not be a sustainable industry.
Source: Fresh Fruit Portal
