The final impact will depend on how the tariffs are passed through to consumer prices.
The tariff policy of Donald Trump’s administration is increasingly shaping international cargo flows. According to the Los Angeles Times, U.S. imports fell 0.1% in October compared with September, a clear sign of growing caution among importers. Monthly volumes were 7.5% below the level recorded a year earlier, and projections from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime and logistics consultancy Hackett Associates point to deeper year-over-year drops of 14.4% in November and 17.9% in December.
Adding to this outlook, an analysis by Vizion warns that U.S. imports have fallen below two million TEUs for the first time since March 2023, signaling what it describes as a “goods recession” and a mix of “structural change with temporary instability”.
Drewry, using data from Container Trade Statistics (CTS), notes that global trade remains resilient, yet North America is clearly lagging behind. Analyst Simon Heaney points out that “the region sits at the bottom of the global growth ranking”, with imports down 7.4% year-over-year and exports slipping 1% in cumulative figures through September.
Impact on ports and supply chains
The impact is being felt directly at U.S. ports. According to the Los Angeles Times, the Port of Long Beach expects to close 2025 near its historical record, yet acknowledges mounting pressure from the slowdown. Its CEO, Mario Cordero, noted that much will depend on the broader economy and on how tariffs ultimately filter through to consumer prices, as well as on the evolution of the U.S. and China trade war.
The same outlet reports that key categories such as soybeans have suffered dramatic declines. Exports from Long Beach plunged 93 percent in the first nine months of the year due to China’s refusal to purchase in response to U.S. tariffs.
The shipping industry is also approaching the situation with caution. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc admitted it is still difficult to determine whether weak demand in North America reflects an inventory correction or a more structural cooling, although he does see signs of “resilient demand” over the next six months. However, he warned that one of the main risks ahead is the “uncertainty that remains” as tariff pauses between the United States and China continue to be temporary.
Pressure on prices and economic growth
Bloomberg highlights that tariffs have made imported goods “more than 6% more expensive than they would have been without the levies”, according to measurements from Harvard’s Pricing Lab. Domestic goods also rose by 3.5%, with even sharper increases in specific categories such as imported carpets (nearly 50%), dairy products (9.7%), and household appliances (5.9%).
Despite this, Bloomberg notes that Trump has softened the impact through expanding exemptions, including food items such as bananas, meat, and coffee, in response to concerns over the cost of living. However, the legal basis of his policy is now under scrutiny. According to the Los Angeles Times, the Supreme Court has shown skepticism regarding the constitutionality of the President’s broad application of tariffs.
On the other hand, a study by the San Francisco Federal Reserve cited by Bloomberg indicates that historical tariff shocks “depress economic activity” and lead to “higher unemployment and lower inflation” due to increased uncertainty and falling asset prices.
Future trends
According to the Los Angeles Times, NRF and Hackett Associates forecast that 2025 will close with 24.9 million TEUs, a 2.3% decline compared to 2024, while the first quarter of 2026 will be measured against weak benchmarks due to the front-loading of imports this year to avoid tariffs. “Market conditions make forecasting highly uncertain”, warned Ben Hackett.
Drewry, meanwhile, sees global trade remaining resilient, but notes that the combination of geopolitical tensions, regulatory instability, and tariffs will continue to shape the trajectory of maritime transport heading into 2026.
Fource: MundoMaritimo
