In this edition of the “Agronometrics in Charts” series, we take a closer look at the U.S. blueberry market and examine how it may be impacted by the recently announced reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. government. Each week, this series explores a different product, focusing on a specific origin or theme, and visualizes the market forces driving change.
The recent decision by the Trump administration to impose tariffs on blueberry imports marks a new chapter in the international trade of this fruit.
Although specific implementation details are still under discussion, the message is clear: the main exporters to the U.S. market – Peru, Mexico, Chile, and Canada – now face a new economic barrier that threatens to stall the steady growth the industry has experienced over the past decade.
A Tariff That Acts Like a Drop in Demand
From an economic standpoint, tariffs function as an artificial reduction in demand. For exporters, a 10% tariff is practically equivalent to losing 10% of their value in the destination market.
Using the average annual growth in the value of the U.S. blueberry imports, approximately 15% over the past 10 years, as a reference, a 10% tariff effectively sets the industry back by about eight months. While this setback may seem manageable on paper, it becomes alarming when considering the growing volume of fruit already in route.
A Double Blow: Lower Demand, Higher Supply
The real complexity of this scenario lies in the combination of two opposing forces: a reduction in effective demand (due to the tariff) and a steady increase in supply, which will not stop overnight.
If imports grow by 10% while effective demand drops by 10%, the resulting imbalance could lead to a price decrease of nearly 20% compared to the previous year.
For many growers and exporters, a decline of this magnitude could be the tipping point between operating profitably or falling into the red. Especially in a context where logistical, labor, and financial costs are already under pressure, this situation only deepens the structural fragility faced by many in the industry.
Ways to Mitigate the Impact
Unfortunately, there are no quick fixes to ensure profitability. The most immediate response likely to come from export-oriented economies will be to devalue their currencies to soften the blow, a measure that can improve competitiveness by increasing returns in local currency. However, this strategy carries its own risks, including the potential for rising domestic inflation.
At the ground level, growers must focus on maximizing the value of what they export. This means prioritizing only the highest-quality fruit and phasing out older or lower-performing varieties that are less likely to command premium prices. Profitability will become a key differentiating factor.
In the medium and long term, the best strategy for the industry lies in accelerating investment in demand creation. This involves raising consumer awareness, increasing consumption occasions, and promoting the health benefits and versatility of blueberries. Only if demand grows at a pace equal to or greater than supply can the industry return to a sustainable growth trajectory.
Conclusion
The prospect of tariffs on blueberries bound for the U.S is more than just a temporary hurdle, it represents a structural shock that challenges the very foundations of the industry’s recent growth model. While not insurmountable, this challenge demands a coordinated, strategic response across the entire supply chain.
Those who act swiftly to adapt by managing costs, rebalancing supply, and investing in demand, will be better positioned to weather the turbulence and emerge stronger in an increasingly competitive global market.
Source: Portal Frutícola
