If the labor stoppage extends for two weeks, the consequences could last until 2025.
The labor contract agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA)—the union representing dockworkers on the East Coast of the U.S. (USEC)—and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX)—the organization representing terminal operators—expires on September 30, 2024. The ILA has stated that if a new agreement is not reached, they will begin a strike on October 1, 2024.
In this context, Sea-Intelligence has analyzed the impact in terms of actual container volumes and how long it would potentially take to mobilize the affected containers once a possible strike ends.
Using historical data, the consultancy estimates that USEC mobilized 2.3 million TEUs in October, which translates to 74,000 TEUs per day, divided into 36,000 TEUs for imports and 38,000 TEUs for exports. In the case of empty containers alone, a strike would mean an inability to mobilize 20,000 TEUs each day.
Once a potential strike ends, in addition to the normal flow, the backlog of containers would need to be addressed. According to the consultancy, the “excess capacity” in this context refers to the port’s ability to handle volumes above the actual mobilized volumes.
One way to estimate this “excess capacity” is to observe the maximum number of containers mobilized in USEC compared to the expected mobilization in October 2024. Based on this, Sea-Intelligence calculates that the USEC port system in October would have a “surplus capacity” of 13% compared to the 2.3 million TEUs expected to be mobilized in October.
According to the consultancy, a one-day strike would result in a backlog of 74,000 TEUs, which would take 6 days to clear.
If the ports had a bit more “excess capacity,” this timeframe could be reduced to 4-5 days, realistically speaking. However, this means that a one-week strike in early October would not be resolved until mid-November. If a two-week strike occurs, a realistic estimate is that the ports would not return to normal operations until 2025.
Source: MundoMaritimo
