However, the outlook remains uncertain due to geopolitical tensions and a decrease in exports.
Global merchandise trade continued to recover in the third quarter of 2024, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer. Despite the positive signal from the Barometer index, the outlook for trade remains highly uncertain due to increased geopolitical tensions, ongoing regional conflicts, the shift in monetary policy in advanced economies, and a decrease in export orders. Notably, container shipping has joined other sectors in performing above the trend.
It is important to note that the Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator of global trade that provides real-time information about the trajectory of goods trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values above 100 are associated with trade volumes above the trend, while values below 100 suggest that goods trade has fallen below the trend or will do so in the near future.
The latest reading of 103.0 for the Barometer index is above both the quarterly trade volume index and the reference value of 100 for both indices, suggesting that the growth in goods trade volume should remain positive in the second and third quarters of 2024, once official statistics for these periods are available.
In detail, all the Barometer component indices are currently on trend or above it, with the notable exception of the electronic components index (95.4), which is below trend and declining. The indices for automotive products (103.3), container shipping (104.3), and air freight (107.1) are firmly above trend.
New export orders (101.2), which are typically the most predictive component of the Barometer, are slightly positive but have declined, which could be a cause for concern for the future. The raw materials index (99.3) is almost on trend but has dropped sharply over the past three months.
Global Trade Volume
After remaining flat since the last quarter of 2022, the global merchandise trade volume began to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2023 and gained traction in the first quarter of 2024. In the most recent period for which data is available, trade increased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% year-on-year.
The quarter-on-quarter growth in the last two quarters averaged 0.7%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 2.7%. This figure is quite close to the most recent WTO forecast from April 2024, which predicted a 2.6% increase in global merchandise trade volume for 2024. Recent value data shows weaker-than-expected trade growth in Europe and stronger-than-expected growth in other regions.
Source: MundoMarítimo
