Incio>Blog>Perishable Transport > Climate Impact on Peruvian Mango Exports: Forecasting a 76% Decrease in 2023-24

Climate Impact on Peruvian Mango Exports: Forecasting a 76% Decrease in 2023-24

Peruvian mango exports are heavily affected by climatic conditions, anticipating a drastic year-on-year decrease this year. The Peruvian Association of Mango Producers and Exporters (APEM) forecasts a 76% drop in volumes this season, falling to 60,000 tons from the 250,000 tons reported in the 2022-23 season, which marked the fourth consecutive increase of this fruit.

The reduction in export volumes has caused a significant increase in prices, even doubling the price from the previous season for air-shipped fruit. According to Ivan Vilches, president of APEM, rains during March and April severely impacted production in the San Lorenzo Valley and virtually all growing regions.

“Rising Prices”

A lower supply in mango markets leads to an increase in prices, according to Angel Gamarra, president of Promango. “Selling prices are good because the supply is low, and the market, especially for mangos transported by air, almost doubles the prices,” says Gamarra. Vilches explains that for some companies, like Dominus, which conducts 95% of its operations by sea, they are seeing an increase in raw material prices, but they expect destination prices to be on par with raw material today, with very little supply. We have seen prices 10 times higher than last year.”

Peruvians hope that with the Mexican export window starting between March and April, prices will remain competitive to offset the decrease in volumes.

U.S. Market:

Regarding the U.S. market, Vilches says, “We have good expectations that the market will accept prices based on low supply. I believe there are good expectations in all markets; we are confident that markets will respond positively to the situation.” On the other hand, Gamarra indicates that markets receiving fruit by air, such as Spain, France, Italy, Korea, and Japan, maintain a price that covers export costs and leaves some benefit for producers. “Shipments to the United States by sea are just beginning, but it seems that the market will also respond because the raw material is selling at a good price. Forecasts indicate that the main market will be the United States because Europe will have some Brazilian mangos,” says Gamarra. “Originally, we estimated exporting to the U.S. approximately 8 million boxes, but I think we will stay at 5 million boxes,” adds the president of ProMango.

In conclusion, the mango export sector in Peru faces a considerable challenge in the 2023-24 season due to climatic adversities. The significant reduction in volumes and the price hike pose economic challenges for producers, although optimistic expectations remain for market acceptance, especially in the United States. The evolution of prices and supply in the coming months will be crucial to determine the final impact on the industry.