At least six aspects of vital importance should be monitored over the next year.
Spot rates have been softening on major shipping routes from the Far East since they peaked in July, which can be seen as good news for cargo owners ahead of new long-term contract negotiations.
However, Xeneta issues a warning that “it won’t take much for the needle to return to the red alert zone and for logistics markets to spiral again.” Thus, although cargo owners are hoping for a somewhat eased 2025, the consultancy advises to ‘be realistic and prepare for more disruptions.”
In fact, according to MundoMaritimo, the consultancy has already highlighted six aspects of vital importance to monitor for the upcoming year in its 2025 Ocean Outlook report:
- The growth of global container volumes will slightly slow down after a record year in 2024, with demand expected to increase by 3% in 2025.
- The impact of the conflict in the Red Sea on TEU/mile demand will continue to be a factor. However, a partial return of shipping lines to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal could lead to a change in TEU/mile demand ranging from 3% to -11%.
- Fleet growth is expected to slow down by 4.5% in 2025.
- Choosing a container shipping service provider will definitely be more complicated after the significant changes announced in the area of shipping alliances.
- Will 2025 be a quiet year? No. In fact, the consultancy warns that the list of risks to manage is becoming increasingly long, with the Red Sea crisis at the top of the list.
- Decarbonization and environmental regulation are gaining new dimensions, with the EU ETS regulation intensifying in 2025 to cover 70% of CO2 emissions.
The authors of the report, analysts Peter Sand and Emily Stausbøll, highlight a point in favor of cargo owners amidst all these concerns: the availability of information. “They have access to more data and insights than ever before, which means they can closely monitor spending on goods transportation on individual routes and compare shipping lines in terms of schedule reliability, capacity, transit times, and CO2 emissions.” Is that enough to feel at ease?
Tariff Behavior
Freightos, in its weekly report, aligns with Xeneta’s assessment that spot rates on the Transpacific route from Asia are now 30% below their July peaks, adding that with the early end of the peak season, rates are expected to continue decreasing.
Closing the shutter, the Baltic Freightos Index (FBX) indicates that spot rates from the Far East to the West Coast of the U.S. (USWC) averaged $5,565/FEU, marking a 3% weekly drop, while rates to the East Coast (USEC) reached $6,787/FEU in seven days, climbing by 1%. It should be noted, however, that both figures remain several thousand dollars higher than typical levels, even for the peak season, and are also approximately $1,000/FEU higher than the adjusted low due to the Red Sea crisis reached in April.
This reinforces the idea that “as long as deviations around the Cape of Good Hope continue to absorb capacity, rates cannot fall much lower than what was observed in April.”
Meanwhile, on the Asia-Northern Europe routes, rates have fallen even further to $3,625/FEU (11%) and to the Mediterranean $4,118/FEU (8%), nearly matching April levels.
Delays Due to Hurricane Milton and the Strike
Among the notable events of recent days is the impact of Hurricane Milton along the west coast of Florida, which caused power outages and forced the Port of Tampa Bay to remain closed until Monday, October 14. Meanwhile, the ports of Miami and Jacksonville resumed operations before the end of last week.
In contrast, the Port of Savannah, which was still facing delays due to Hurricane Helene in September, will need another two weeks to fully restore fluidity, as the three-day ILA port strike contributed to the number of ships waiting.
Freightos reports that ships are waiting more than two days to secure space at this US East Coast port, while other major ports in the region have also reported waits of one to four days at some terminals due to the strike, representing significant but not extreme congestion as delays are being resolved.
Source: MundoMaritimo